The short story is it does not match. It's not even close and I can't believe they sell that thing. I thought I'd write this down so hopefully nobody has to waste as much time as I did discovering it.
Here is what eventually happens when someone with poor spatial perception parks the odyssey again and again:
Fortunately the bumper was not damaged beyond the paint and the fender is only very slightly bent, with a small paint chip on the corner. Given the odds of this happening again, I thought I'd simply patch it up this time. So here is what I got after some minor buffing and application of the honda touch up pen:
Oops. I double checked with the paint code in the door (NH797M) and it is the right touch up pen. The fix was actually more obvious than the original damage after cleaning. I don't understand how they can match the color so poorly. Or maybe I just got a pen filled with the wrong paint at the factory. Either way, ff you ever do buy one, definitely test it on a piece of plastic before you put it on your van.
I had to sand it away and start over, wasting time and making the job harder. I eventually mixed together two metallic paints from Canadian Tire and got something much closer:
It could use a bit of blue in it but it's very close. After sanding, clearcoat, more sanding and polishing, I eventually got something decent:
The small light spot is because I didn't remove enough of the bad paint before applying the good one and sanded through. It also looks like I could have had a smoother surface with maybe 2-3 paint coats in the big scratch but overall it's not visible unless you look for it, which is good enough for me on a bumper. I certainly had fun and learned a few things doing this
Here is what eventually happens when someone with poor spatial perception parks the odyssey again and again:

Fortunately the bumper was not damaged beyond the paint and the fender is only very slightly bent, with a small paint chip on the corner. Given the odds of this happening again, I thought I'd simply patch it up this time. So here is what I got after some minor buffing and application of the honda touch up pen:

Oops. I double checked with the paint code in the door (NH797M) and it is the right touch up pen. The fix was actually more obvious than the original damage after cleaning. I don't understand how they can match the color so poorly. Or maybe I just got a pen filled with the wrong paint at the factory. Either way, ff you ever do buy one, definitely test it on a piece of plastic before you put it on your van.
I had to sand it away and start over, wasting time and making the job harder. I eventually mixed together two metallic paints from Canadian Tire and got something much closer:

It could use a bit of blue in it but it's very close. After sanding, clearcoat, more sanding and polishing, I eventually got something decent:

The small light spot is because I didn't remove enough of the bad paint before applying the good one and sanded through. It also looks like I could have had a smoother surface with maybe 2-3 paint coats in the big scratch but overall it's not visible unless you look for it, which is good enough for me on a bumper. I certainly had fun and learned a few things doing this