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Now Alabama is in full swing, when will the dealers wakeup and sell the Odysseys at least close to invoice?
 

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...when pigs fly...
 

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It'll never happen, and I'm not just saying that because I am an owner and want resale values to stay high (!). Supply will definitely increase, but I suspect demand will continue to outstrip supply, just not by so much. That will mean that some dealers may drop their prices a little to gain some sales, but I would be surprised if anybody saw more than MSRP - $1,000, and most metropolitan areas will still be asking MSRP, or MSRP + $500, down from MSRP + $1,000+...


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<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by pearsonrj:
Supply will definitely increase, but I suspect demand will continue to outstrip supply, just not by so much.
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I think that's about right. The recent USA Today article mentioned a concern by Honda that the cars most often traded for Chrysler minivans were Accords and Civics (i.e. Honda customers put off by the long wait for Odysseys). As soon as Odys start appearing on dealers' lots, more buyers will 'magically' appear. I'll bet the only drop will be wait times.
 

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The USAToday article said Honda was upping production from 120K to 150K per year in Alabama. PRoduction in Ontario to be elimintated in order to start up the Honda SUV. So 30,000 more vans divided by 50 states divided by 52 weeks per year means that on average each state will get about an additional 12 vans per week. This doesn't include distribution to Canada or LaGreats.

There are appx 25 dealers in Massachusetts alone - so there still ain't gonna be a whole lot of extra inventory around in my mind.

Honda knows that this vehicle is good for them and good for their dealers. I think they want to reduce wait time just enough so people won't jump to another make. Honda owners tend to be loyal and IMHO will wait 2-3 weeks and the dealers can still pretty much deal with zero inventory.
 

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The only potential threat on the radar screen for Odyssey sales MAY be the 2003 Sienna. Nonetheless, Odyssey sales have a lot of momentum going and it would take something significant in the marketplace to change that.

As long as the demand continues to meet or exceed the supply, Odyseey selling prices will NOT decrease. You may see some dealer discounting in the future in order to remain competitive but not before the MSRP goes up to counteract any discounts.
 

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I wouldn't expect that to happen until there's a dealer inventory of about 60 days. That's what most of your other car makers like to use as a benchmark.
 

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If Honda isn't going to go above 150,000 with the Odyssey, they're going to be leaving a lot of sales on the table. A lot of Accord owners moving to a van are going to be buying Daimler-Chrysler or Toyota, etc. There's no other possibility--Honda's just not making enough vans and those they do make will go to those willing to wait the longest and/or pay the most.

Strange, too -- Honda doesn't operate with low volumes and ultra-tight supplies on CRVs, Accords, or Civics, so why timidity with Odyssey production? After all, selling a relatively small number of Odysseys at above MSRP prices is very nice for the dealers, but it doesn't do much for Honda's bottom line (or, at least, not nearly as much as it *could* do for Honda's bottom line). Makes me wonder why they don't raise prices and get some of the premium themselves instead of letting the dealers have it all.

Only thing that makes sense to me is that with the economy and redesigned Sienna in the works, Honda doesn't want to take the risk of pouring more money into capacity right now.

Shame -- we'll be looking for a van next year probably, but I'm not real keen on Odyssey shopping when the dealer tends to have one or two in stock for a test drive and a take-it-or-leave-it attitude. Will be keeping my eyes peeled for the 2003 Sienna.
 

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One can't help but wonder if maybe American Honda is thinking some of those would-be Odyssey buyers might swing towards the upcoming Honda SUV instead...

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